Over Valuing Hands

Why is it in bar poker that when players get two face cards that they think they have a monster hand. The other night there was a hand that was raised preflop by a big amount and then called by two players. After the flop raiser made an even bigger bet and was called by the 1st player and second one folded. After hand was over I was talking to the player that had folded and asked why he had called. He had been complaining about his hand and having to fold. I told him I was sure that raiser had a big hand in which he had aces and other player also had a big hand which turned out to be kings. He told me that he had Q-J suited so he had to make the call. So, I say to him, you called a big raise with a quick call with Q-J suited. Yes, he says I had to play my big hand. Now you know that I am trying not to laugh out loud at him because he is serious. To him Q-J suited is a big hand with no thinking about position and what happened before it got to him. Now I say to him, what would you have done with 2-3 suited in the same scenario. He says I fold no question. I say then why not fold Q-J suited, it's basically the same hand. Now he gets defensive. That's not the same hand. Q-J is way better then 2-3. He still doesn't get it but that's ok. Here are some percentages. With Q-J against AA and KK your odds of winning preflop are 15.44. Your odds with 2-3 are 14.73. You have gained .71 percent by playing Q-J over 2-3. Now lets try a little different scenario. Players have AK and AQ both suited. With Q-J and 2-3 you have the same odds at 25.52. AK unsuited and pocket 10's. Q-J is 29.98 and 2-3 is 17.24. There you gained over 12 percent with Q-J but only because pair is under pair. Now make it QQ and it's Q-J is 12.90 and 2-3 is 17.81 your gaining by playing 2-3. So remember, two face cards is not always the hand to play. You must play them differently each time based on position and what has happen before it got to you or just ask yourself, would I play 2-3 suited in this positon and then just fold the Q-J.

Donkey Dave

We all have those moments when we make calls and suck out and have those donkey moments that you embarrassed to admit that you played a hand that way. Last night was a classic moment for me. It was early in my Tuesday game and I was on a table with 5 ladies that all have varied levels of skill. Yes, I am trying to be nice! My starting hands were running very good, but usually turned to junk in a hurry. They was no raise that wasn't being called. When on a table like this I tend to play hands based on who is in the two blinds. Players that tend to check, I will limp in with pretty much any two cards. I am in late position with K-5 off. BB will almost always check so I call preflop. Gets to BB and she raises 250 more. I have 100 in. There are 3 callers before it gets to me so I call and so do the two behind me. Flop is K-7-4. BB bets 1500. Everyone folds to me. Know what I know is she has a pair, but what pair does she have. I know that she doesn't have A-K because she would have checked with it. There is already over 2000 in pot so I decide to call and see one more card and see if she checks and I will know where I am at. Turn is a K. WOW! She bets 1500 and I just call. I am know certain that I am ahead, but want to play cautiously just in case she has a K with a better kicker. River is blank. She checks and I decide to check and turn over my k-5. She turns over pocket aces and goes immediately on tilt by my call of her bet after the flop. I take down a nice big pot and almost double. It was a donkey play but the way she bet the hand allowed me to catch up. I would have certainly folded preflop to a more experienced player. I guess what goes around comes around as later in the tournament I KK and ran into KK for a split pot that I thought I would win and then pushed all in with 77 late in blinds in early position to run into QQ and JJ and come up short of the points. Maybe a lesson was learned, at least by me anyway!

Birthday Casino Trip

I so rarely get a chance these days to go and play a tournament at the casino. It was my birthday yesterday and decided it was time to go and play a real tournament at Milacs casino. Normally on a Wednesday I would go to Hinckley and play their tournament, but was online checking out my options when I noticed Milacs had an $80 buy in with what seemed like a decent structure. I got there about 20 minutes before tournament started and sign up. I was the 4th person to sign up. Went to sit at my table when it was time and they were up to 8. Wow I am thinking what did I get myself into. I asked the dealer if this was normal and he said yes and that they would end up around 20 people. Which they did. In the early rounds things didn't go to well. Turned a straight on a hand that someone had flopped a full house and later flopped top pair top kicker and other player flopped two pair and rivered a full house, but did manage to stay in as s short stack. Finally won a few hand in a row to get a nice size stack back and then hit the jackpot. I was big blind with Q-9 suited and was able to check. Flop came 9-7-5 two of my suited. Made a pot size bet and got a caller. Turn was a Q. Caller makes a pot size bet. I move all in. He instantly calls and I am sure I am done. He turns over K-J and has a gut shot. The table can't believe that he called off almost all his chips on a gut shot. He says I thought I had K-Q. I end up winning a big pot and become chip leader. I think I would have made sure of my hand before pushing most of my chips in. Thank you! I was pretty card dead for most of the rest of the night, but managed to win enough pots to get me in the money. Had A-K in mid position and raised. Got reraised by under the gun limper. He didn't have much left, so I pushed all in. He had AA and I lost. Now, I am short stack. A few hands later, I an the BB. Under the gun player, a weaker player, doubles my BB. I have 2-4 of clubs. I am pretty sure based an his past betting that he has a big A. I decide to call. Flop is Q-6-4. He makes a small bet. I decide to call and see one more card. Turn is a 3. He bets just under enough to put me all in. I am already in the money and too far invested to fold. I am sure now that he has an over pair, but I have several outs. I move all in. He turns over jacks. I say well I got a few outs anyway and hit a 4 on the river. All guy had to do was bet more preflop and I am gone. Blinds come around a couple of more times and I am know getting short stacked and need an all in hand. The other two have big stacks and I am sure that they are waiting for me to go out so they can chop money. I am big blind with A-4 with under the gun guy calling. That is how he played all night. I push in. He calls with AA and I am out in 3rd. Next time on a Wednesday I will drive to Hinckley for more players.

CMPPA Event #5

Saturday was the fifth event of the Central MN Poker Players Association (CMPPA). I ended up at a table with 6 very solid players and two weaker. It was very fun with blinds being 30 minutes and starting with 15,000. It was a nice change from a normal bar poker game. It also helped that I had a nice card rush early to become the chip leader. One of the weaker players is very tight and plays very few hands. When I am on a table with him, I will usually raise his big blind because if he doesn't fold preflop he will after the flop unless he has caught something. I did raise his BB the first two times around and won both pots. The third time there were some early position limpers that I didn't think would fold so I decided not to raise preflop and called with 6-8 offsuit. It got to him and he raised to 3 times the blind. Two players in front of me called and player behind me I could tell was going to call, so I decided to call and play cautiously. Flop came Q-5-7 rainbow. Everyone checked to BB and he bets out 600. I decide to call and see one more card. Turn is a 9. Bingo! I check. He bets out 1200. I reraise to 5200. I am happy to take pot down now with the size of the pot. He calls. I am know thinking he must have a set. I wasn't expecting a call. River is a 3. I move all in and he calls all his chips. I turn over straight. He shows a set of 9's. What a great turn card for me. I was a little surprised that he called the river bet with only a set, but he must have thought I had two pair. I did end up with most of the chips of the other weak player when I flopped a straight and he flopped two pair. He made a nice lay down at the turn when I pushed all in. I was afraid of a flush. He thought I had a set. The interesting thing is I put him on tilt when I wouldn't show him my hand. He asked if I would show if he folded and I said absolutely not. He didn't last much longer as he thought I had bluffed him out of the hand. I did make the final table much later in the day with a mid size stack and was feeling very confident. This is when I may have made my only mistake of the day. I am still not even sure if I missed played this hand or not. I am the small blind and look down to pocket aces. Everyone folds to me so I just move all in. I am happy just to take blinds in this position. BB was not paying attention and didn't notice that I had pushed in and announces raise. Someone tells him that I had moved all in and he calls and shows pocket 7's. I think he thought that I was making a move on him. Turn is a 7 and he has me covered by 1000 in chips and I am knocked out in 10th. I would have been close to chip leader had I won the hand. I could have played the hand slower and I think he would have folded after the flop. It was a valuable lesson learned. I assumed that he fold to my big bet. I didn't think he would have a hand in that position. On the other hand I will take the 82-18 percent preflop anytime. It was a fun day that ended with a very solid final table that included two runner runner suck outs, but that will have to be for another day.

Slow playing

At my game last night fairly early in tournament, blinds are at 50-100, I have 3-4 off and I limp in. Mostly because of who the big blind is a new very weak player. BB raises to 500. Now normally I would fold her, but for some reason I decided to see a flop. I can't seem to remember but it was all over to me, so I am waiting to fold. BB checks and so do I and one other player. Turn is a 3. BB checks again. I think about betting but am sure that BB has a pair bigger then mine so I check. Other player checks. River is a 3. BB bets out 1500. I move all in. Other player folds. BB insta calls me for less and turns over pocket queens. I turn over my 3-4 and take down a huge pot. The BB is you really called me with 3-4, boy did I play that hand bad. LOL! Not from my perspective. Thanks for slow playing and letting me catch up. I would have folded to any bet on flop or turn. So remember it always pays to slow play!

Hole in game

At last nights bar game a player that I have a lot of respect for came up to me after getting knocked out of the final table and said to me " that is one of the biggest holes in my game" and then went on to explain. He had been knocked out by pocket kings that had limped in preflop and then called all bets and all in when player had flopped top pair. Now I don't see this necessarily as a hole in your game. There are always going to be players that will slow play KK or AA. They have a monster but want to get as much out of it as possible and are not worried if they get knocked out or there are players that just never raise and only call. I think this follows very closely with a player flopping a set with a small pocket pair even if that player had called a raise before flop. I think it is more a matter of do you want to get all your chips in with only top pair or do you need to be more conservative and leave your self an out in case someone has a monster. I do understand where this player is coming from. He is on final table with blinds very high, so all in when you think you have the best hand is usually the right move, but you know that this player could have just about any hand. Anything from A-junk, a draw or even a set. We have all seen it many times at bar poker. Is it a hole in the game. I think not. It is something that just will happen once in while and you have to deal with it's consciouses. It is final table and at sometime you are going to have to put all your chips in, even if you don't have the best hand.

Top 10 Tourney

When people talk about poker being a game of skill vs luck, all they need to do is look at free poker point systems and you will get your answer. If poker were a game of luck then the same people wouldn't make it to the finals of my top ten tournaments. On Tuesday, it was the last of my buy in winning tournaments. I am changing to a casino run finals starting next week. It was maybe the best final 10 that I have ever seen in all my years running poker. For those that don't know, I have been running 12 week sessions for a few years now with the top 10 in points playing for a Casino buy in to a major event. The top 10's chips are based on their point accumulation over the weeks. This top 10 had I think 7 very solid players and 3 wild cards. The 3 wild cards were the 1st 3 knocked out and made for some great poker down the stretch. Almost every hand was raised preflop and most raises had a small amount of callers. In fact it was so you actually could raise and not get over half the table to call. One of the big early hands had me in BB and Dustin in small blind. I had K-6 of clubs and was able to check. Flop came 5-7-8 two clubs. !st player bets 125, Dustin raises to 625. I put him on a set and decide to call and see one more card as I can tell that one of the wild cards is going to call and I assume that 1st bettor will call. I was right except first bettor folds. Turn is a K. I now have top pair with a open ended straight and flush draws. Dustin bets 1200. I decide to call and wild card folds. River is a club that doesn't pair board. Dustin checks. I bet 1600 and he calls and turns over 4-6. He had flopped a straight. After this hand I went on a nice card rush and was close to chip leader most of the tournament. Got to heads up with Fitzwell and we decided to chop the prize, so I paid him $150 and I will go and play the buy in. It was nice to be able play poker for a whole night and make the right raises and folds and not have to guess all the time what the other players may have. I am sure that between all of us that there was some bluffing going on, but I say to all "well played" and thanks for a fun evening. Even though, I ended up with the big prize. I still would have been saying the same if I lost! I can't wait to be able to test my skills at a big event!