Sunday, September 26, 2010
Over Valuing Hands
Why is it in bar poker that when players get two face cards that they think they have a monster hand. The other night there was a hand that was raised preflop by a big amount and then called by two players. After the flop raiser made an even bigger bet and was called by the 1st player and second one folded. After hand was over I was talking to the player that had folded and asked why he had called. He had been complaining about his hand and having to fold. I told him I was sure that raiser had a big hand in which he had aces and other player also had a big hand which turned out to be kings. He told me that he had Q-J suited so he had to make the call. So, I say to him, you called a big raise with a quick call with Q-J suited. Yes, he says I had to play my big hand. Now you know that I am trying not to laugh out loud at him because he is serious. To him Q-J suited is a big hand with no thinking about position and what happened before it got to him. Now I say to him, what would you have done with 2-3 suited in the same scenario. He says I fold no question. I say then why not fold Q-J suited, it's basically the same hand. Now he gets defensive. That's not the same hand. Q-J is way better then 2-3. He still doesn't get it but that's ok. Here are some percentages. With Q-J against AA and KK your odds of winning preflop are 15.44. Your odds with 2-3 are 14.73. You have gained .71 percent by playing Q-J over 2-3. Now lets try a little different scenario. Players have AK and AQ both suited. With Q-J and 2-3 you have the same odds at 25.52. AK unsuited and pocket 10's. Q-J is 29.98 and 2-3 is 17.24. There you gained over 12 percent with Q-J but only because pair is under pair. Now make it QQ and it's Q-J is 12.90 and 2-3 is 17.81 your gaining by playing 2-3. So remember, two face cards is not always the hand to play. You must play them differently each time based on position and what has happen before it got to you or just ask yourself, would I play 2-3 suited in this positon and then just fold the Q-J.
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